I’m wary when everyone jumps on the bandwagon of one new thing. Especially when people throw large sums of money at it. My initial reaction is to swim against the stream. Go where the opposing defense is not. But I’m not ready to dust off my Abacus and Typewriter just yet. Which brings us to AI.
Ah, the buzz. So much buzz. Even the bees are like, “Dude, that’s a lot of buzz.”
Everything is now AI-enabled. Or Generative AI. Or AI vs AI.
How do I know? Every Ad on every screen told me so.
These marketing campaigns are strong. As is the arms race for AI funding and talent acquisition.
Not just between American companies. It is a Global sprint.
And whoever wins: the US, Russia, China, maybe even India, will supposedly rule the next 100 years. Or forever…
Ok, that’s the Hype.
It’s fun. It gets attention.
We all might die from this new technology.
Or we all might live the utopian ideal of 4 hour work weeks, smoothies, and amazing free universal healthcare…
But will this technology really change how we live?
Will we be aware of the changes or will it happen behind-the-scenes?
Are we entering another “Cloud” or another “Internet” moment?
And can we please have some occasional levity?
(Somebody plant tulips across Sand Hill Road)
I don’t claim any expertise in this field. I am a “Dummy” like most of us.
But I do put in the time to learn. Lately that’s meant reading recent AI books (and, like the hype, there are sooooo many):
- “Superintelligence” by Nick Bostrom (2016)
- “The Inevitable” by Kevin Kelly (2017)
- “The Master Algorithm” by Pedro Domingos (2018)
- “Competing in the Age of AI” by Iansiti & Lakhani (2020)
- “Human Compatible” by Stuart Russell (2020)
- “Possible Minds: 25 Ways of Looking at AI” edited by John Brockman (2020)
- “Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans” By Melanie Mitchell (2020)
- “AI Superpowers” by Kai-Fu Lee (2021)
- “A Brief History of Artificial Intelligence” by Michael Wooldridge (2021)
- “Artificial Intelligence for Dummies” by Mueller & Massaron (2021)
- “The Age of AI” by Kissinger, Schmidt & Huttenlocher (2022)
- “Genius Makers” by Cade Metz (2022)
- “The Coming Wave” by Mustafa Suleyman (2023)
- And on and on…
What have I gleaned from the leaders in this discipline?
What is my non-expert expert analysis?
- The Large Corporations Are In Charge
- The Government (as always) Is Slow To The Game
- The Behind-the-Scenes Biotech Stuff Is Where To Worry & Be Joyful
- No AI Can Feel, Empathize, Experience, Contextualize, or Laugh
- Our Daily Routines & Tasks (Personal & Business) Will Be Made Much Easier
- I Love You All. AI Does Not.
The Doom & Gloomers will always exist. In fact, we need them. I’m glad they’re around. In the same way I’m glad the United States has a strong military. But that doesn’t mean I want to be part of it.
Likewise, the Evangelists who claim Generative AI to Capable AI to Super AI is a stone’s throw away and we will all be living in a completely changed world by 2025. To those folks I caution patience. As the saying goes, it’s better to undersell and overdeliver. Furthermore, the boy who cried wolf gets ignored after ad nauseum calls of warning.
Does this mean we’re all going to be eaten by the wolf?
Not if we keep our heads about us and continue an open dialogue among both sides. Talking to each other helps. The American political environment could similarly heed this advice. The more we talk – the more we learn – the more we listen – the more we understand…each other.
The challenge with AI is the level of secrecy, especially around Biotech advances. In this case, the public won’t know until it knows, and even then will most likely be surprised by the amazing innovations (or terrible consequences).
The Government loves photo ops and bringing together the AI five families and usual suspects for a meet and greet: Google – Meta – Amazon – Microsoft – Apple. They all know each other anyway. DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic, Inflection AI, and on and on. Most of the AI Startups are owned or funded by either one of the five families or a private equity connection.
The Large Private Corporations are running the AI Show. Make no mistake about that. In the same way they run our Search, Social, and Shopping, they own AI.
There is one other Large Private Corporation in the mix as well, better funded than all of the American businesses put together: China.
They are the sleeping giant pretending to snooze while their Avatar runs endless wind sprints across the web. Their power and influence should not be underestimated…
But that’s migraine-inducing geopolitics. Let’s focus on the here & now and your daily life. How will that change?
In the short term we’re all going to get awesome personal generative AI Assistants. Woohoo! It’s like Asking Jeeves but For Real and It Works!
Many of our routines and tasks, both business and personal, will be streamlined, enhanced, and made much much easier and simpler. All the AI prompts being created currently will allow the average user to bypass all of that work and get the answer they’re looking for immediately. What will this mean for online search Ad revenue? That’s a whole other discussion…
The best way for most people to think of AI right now is it will help eliminate much of your Mundane. Busy work, boring lists, never-ending to-dos and scheduling – Jeeves will get all of that done for you on-the-go and while you sleep.
As for predicting the future of AI for the general population, I’m not in those Think Tank discussion rooms. I’m firmly ensconced in the local Diner scene. An equally important spot that can help us all remember: eggs sunny side up, hash browns crispy, whole wheat toast, and a hot cup of coffee. The “little” things in life have great unmeasured value too.
AI can’t feel the caffeine waking them up…
Or empathize with the homeless man hoping for a breakfast sandwich…
Or experience the dog walker saunter by with ten leashed K-9 companions…
Or understand the context that the diner owner and employee aren’t really yelling at each other, it’s just their normal everyday routine…
Or laugh at the bus driver’s joke & punchline that he nails to an eager audience…
Or love the person sitting across from you…
Menoons 